December 9, 2015

New Draft Agreement Text: The End of the Beginning or Beginning of the End?

Stephen Eule

After a great deal of anticipation, new draft agreement text was issued earlier today, which includes text for a draft agreement and decision.

While the text is, at 29 pages, more streamlined than earlier iterations, that doesn’t mean a lot of issues have been resolved. Quite the contrary. Although a lot of the chaff has been swept away, we’re not any closer to the wheat just yet.

The issues keeping the Parties apart are the same issues that have bedeviled the talks for years. Chief among them is differentiation—i.e., who’s supposed to do what. Developed countries are still pushing developing countries, which heretofore have really very few responsibilities, to take on a bigger burden as they develop. Developing countries, however, are still sticking with the tried and true principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities” that has prevented anything more than voluntary actions from developing countries. Developing countries like this status and are looking to keep it, but at some point something’s got to give.

This debate over differentiation is also tied up in another sticky issue—financial aid. Many climate change activities developing countries have proposed to reduce their emissions (or in most cases just reduce their emissions growth) are conditional on aid from developed countries. Developing country’s Parties still want assurances that the $100 billion developed countries pledged to “mobilize” is forthcoming.

Secretary Kerry today promised, in addition the $3 billion in funding for the Green Climate Fund, a doubling of the funding for adaptation grants by 2020 to more than $800 million, funding that may be difficult to extract for a reticent Congress.

A third issue is transparency. The Chinese especially have been resisting efforts to establish a common reporting system to track progress on policy implementation and greenhouse gas emissions. The Chinese also are apparently pushing back on a requirement that would compel countries to update their emissions every five years (China wants this to be voluntary).

The long-term climate goal is another issue, with developing countries in particular wanting to stop any goal that would hinder their ability to develop their economies. Who can blame them?

Finally, the issue of loss and damage, whereby developed countries would pay reparations to developing countries to cover the costs in damages from severe weather events and the like, is still hanging out there. This includes language on a “climate change displacement coordination facility,” that presumably would pay for the relocation of people from small island states.

The Parties meet tonight in plenary and have been told by Laurent Fabius, France's foreign minister, “You need to be ready to work overnight and tomorrow” if they have any hope of completing their work by Friday evening.

My advice to the delegates would be: If you have any plans for the weekend, cancel them.